In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 53 percent of Ohio Midterm voters say they would vote for Trump and 39 percent would vote for Biden, according to new findings from Emerson College Polling.
Among Ohio voters, Biden’s approval rating is 39 percent and 56 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
The recent raid on Trump’s Palm Beach, Florida, home that was carried out by the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), in other polls, was a strong motivating factor for voters.
However, Emerson College survey data show that only 39 percent of Ohio voters are more likely to support Trump following the FBI search of Mar-A-Lago, while 35 percent say it makes them less likely to support him, and 27 percent say it made no difference.
“A majority of rural voters, 55%, say they are more likely to support the former president following the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Suburban voters are more split, 38% say it makes them less likely to support Trump and 35% say it makes them more likely to vote for the former president in two years,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College polling.
In the U.S. Senate race, Trump-endorsed candidate J.D. Vance holds a three-point lead over Democratic candidate Tim Ryan. However, the race is still up for grabs, as 10 percent of voters are still undecided and four percent say they will vote for a separate candidate.
“A gender divide exists in the race for US Senate; women voters support Ryan over Vance, and male voters support Vance over Ryan. That said, male voters break at a more significant 20-point margin for Vance, whereas women voters break for Ryan by a 15-point margin,” Kimball said. “Both Vance and Ryan have strong bases of support, and the race tightens to a one-point lead for Vance among the very motivated and very likely voters in Ohio, whereas Vance leads by a larger margin among somewhat likely and somewhat motivated voters.”
The polling data also show that the Ohio Republican congressional delegation holds a 10-point lead over congressional Democrats and that half of Ohio voters believe the economy is the most important issue facing the state.
The ECP survey was conducted between Aug. 15 and Aug 16., and has a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points.