Two polls that have just been released show President Joe Biden’s campaign taking on water while support for former President Trump grows in the race for the 2024 presidential election.
The newly-released New York Times/Siena Poll shows Biden and Trump in a dead heat in a hypothetical rematch in next year’s presidential election. The data could set off alarm bells within the Biden camp, which has welcomed the chance to run against Trump for a second time.
A key strategy for Biden’s re-election bid will be branding “Trumpism” and “MAGA” as a threat to America, casting Trump’s supporters as “a far-right authoritarian force,” as Axios described the Biden team’s efforts to not only target Trump, but all “America First” candidates.
Despite having already been slapped with two sets of indictments, along with voters expecting an indictmenst from Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, and another set of potential charges from Special Counsel Jack Smith, Trump is still polling at above 50 percent in the GOP primary election.
In modern history, no one polling as high as Trump has ever lost a presidential primary that didn’t have an incumbent in the race. Statistically speaking, barring a major development, it is more than likely that Trump will end up being the Republican nominee.
The recent indictments have slightly diminished Trump’s favorability rating with right-leaning registered voters. But, many view his effectiveness as president as superseding concerns over behavior or the indictments, which his supporters view as politically motivated.
Underscoring the commitment of both Trump and his base to have him at the top of the ticket in 2o24 are Trump’s statements that he would not bow out even if convicted of a crime, and his supporters’ willingness to stand by him and vote for him even if he is convicted.
Separately, Trump is leading Biden by six points in crucial swing states, according to a new Echelon poll.
🇺🇲 2024 Presidential Election Poll
(R) Donald Trump: 42% (+3)
(D) Joe Biden: 39%
Moderate Independent: 9%Swing States
(R) Donald Trump: 44% (+6)
(D) Joe Biden: 38%
Moderate Independent: 9%Echelon (A/B) | 1,013 LV | 07/24-27https://t.co/H2GG5ILMGy pic.twitter.com/5Mq32hWMlQ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2023
In key battleground states, Trump is polling at 44 percent, with Biden trailing at 38 percent.
The past two years of challenges tied to Biden’s handling of the economy might have been a key part of Republican messaging headed into 2024. But, a drop in gas prices and receding year-over-year inflation numbers have given Democrats hope they can blunt such attacks.
“Republican talking points are having a really bad summer,” Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, recently told The Guardian. “The core attacks against Biden are evaporating. The economy is strong. Inflation’s down. The deficit’s down.”
Yet, despite the seemingly chipper news for Team Biden, headed into August, he had an approval rating of 40.7 percent, only a slight improvement from the lowest approval rating of his presidency. Last summer, Biden’s approval rating was the lowest of any modern president.
According to FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times/Siena College polling maintains a slightly Democrat-leaning bias, and called just 75 percent of races correctly in 2022. Echelon Insights holds a slightly Republican-leaning bias, and only called 70 percent of races correctly in last year’s midterm elections.
Editor’s Note: The previous headline for this article — “New 2024 Polls Show Biden Sliding Behind Trump” — has been revised for accuracy
