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Trump Polling Higher As Threat of Prosecution Ramps Up

Latest Data May Validate Theory That Trump's Popularity Will Only Rise As Democrats Continue To Pursue Investigations

As the looming threat of indictment stemming from multiple investigations grows ever more likely for former President Donald Trump, two new polls show that Trump’s support is increasing.

It was widely speculated that Tuesday Mar. 21 would be the day that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg would announce that Trump was arrested and indicted in connection with an alleged payment made to an adult film star. The same day, a poll from Morning Consult showed trump posting one of his largest polling leads in the 2024 Republican primary.

“The latest survey shows 54 percent of potential primary voters support the former president, compared with 26 percent who are backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, tying his expected opponent’s lowest level of support since tracking began in December,” Morning Consult reported.

The next closest Republicans were former Vice President Mike Pence (7 percent), and former governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, who is polling at 4 percent.

Separately, a Monmouth University poll released the same day showed 41 percent of Republicans want to see Trump as the 2024 presidential nominee, while only 27 percent favored DeSantis. These numbers were a drastic change from just a month prior, which showed Trump and DeSantis locked in a dead heat, each with 33 percent support.

In a hypothetical head-to-head contest, 47 percent of Republicans would pick Trump for the party’s nomination, while 46 percent would choose DeSantis, the survey found. A month prior, in February, 53 percent would have chosen DeSantis, while only 40 percent would have chosen Trump.

“The movement Trump created is sticking by their standard-bearer. That’s enough for Trump to overcome weaker support among the less MAGA portion of the Republican electorate, at least for now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Trump’s support seems to be pretty stable right now. The more candidates who get involved in the race the more it seems to spread out the anti-Trump vote. However, that only seems to have an impact on DeSantis, as no other potential candidate registers significant strength at this time,” Murray added.

The latest numbers at least somewhat validate suspicions that have circulated suggesting that as three sets of prosecutors — Manhattan’s Alvin Bragg, Fulton County DA Fani Willis, and Special Counsel Jack Smith — consider potentially indicting Trump on an array of criminal charges, his support and popularity will increase.

While Democrats have yet to openly express concerns that Trump’s popularity — and, by extension, his electability — could surge amid criminal indictments many consider to be politically motivated, some worry that Trump beating the charges could make it easier for him to cast any future charges as a “witch hunt.”

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