Despite numerous indictments from multiple teams of prosecutors, former president Donald Trump has soared in intra-party polling, increasing his lead over other candidates vying for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination.
But, though his supporters remain unshaken as criminal charges continue to be brought against him and his associates — making it nearly impossible for him to not be the Republican nominee — polling data shows that support for Trump in the general election is beginning to fade.
Over the past month, following three sets of indictments, multiple polls show that Trump’s unfavorable rating has gotten worse by double-digits.
As FiveThirtyEight shows:
- YouGov: Unfavorable rating increased by 17 points
- Ipsos: Unfavorable rating increased by 29 points
- Cygnal: Unfavorable rating increased by 6 points
- Echelon Insights: Unfavorable rating increased by 16 points
- New York Times/Siena: Unfavorable rating increased by 14 points
- Gallup: Unfavorable rating increased by 14 points
“Horse-race polls don’t tell the whole story of Americans’ reactions to the indictments, though. Instead of looking only at 2024 primary polling, consider Trump’s favorability ratings,” G. Elliott Morris wrote in an analysis for FiveThirtyEight.
“In the two weeks after federal prosecutors unsealed the classified-documents indictment, Trump’s net favorability rating among Republicans fell from +57.1 to +55.3, a drop of 1.8 percentage points,” he explained. “Over that same time period, Trump’s net favorability rating among all adults fell from -11.9 percentage points — the high point for him in 2023 — back down to -14.8, a slightly larger dip than among Republicans.”
He added that if we expand the time being analyzed, the news gets even worse.
“After gaining steadily among Republicans following his first indictment in March, Trump’s net favorability rating fell nearly 10 points among Republicans and 5 points among all adults between late May and late July, erasing most of the gains he saw throughout 2023,” he continued. “His numbers have improved a bit since then among Republicans, but not among Americans as a whole.”
Morris noted that this response is just regarding the indictments, while predicting that after actual trials begin next year, the fallout could be more significant.
Those concerns are echoed by a GOP strategist who spoke with Timcast News on condition of anonymity.
According to the consultant, who is still actively working on high-profile campaigns, the numerous indictments filed against Trump will not bring back the college-educated voters in metro areas that he needs to win again.
“I just don’t see how those college-educated voters who left with us in ’16 and have now voted against us in three straight elections, all of a sudden are going to come home; that these indictments are going to bring things home,” they told Timcast News during an interview.
“So, I do think there’s a greater likelihood of success if we move on to somebody else and focus on the issues,” they added.
“I live in the campaign world, but I do know that we have a broken messenger and I just don’t think anything is gonna fix it,” they said. “And maybe the fact is we are jammed between a rock and a hard place here, and we have to have our house burned down until we’re able to see the light in ’26 and ’28. And maybe that’s just reality.”
