Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now the frontrunner on PredictIt for both the Republican nomination and to win the presidency in 2024.
PredictIt is a large online political prediction market, often called a “stock market for politics.”
As of Wednesday morning, DeSantis picks were 40 cents, while Trump bets were down to 31, in the market for the Republican presidential nomination.
The former president dramatically declined from 45 cents on November 7 to 31 cents on November 9.
None of the other potential candidates listed have “stocks” in the double digits.
DeSantis is also the frontrunner on the betting website’s market for “Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?”
In that market, the Florida governor’s stocks are sitting at 32 cents, while President Joe Biden and Trump are both 25 cents.
As Timcast previously reported, Trump and DeSantis had tied back in May as the frontrunners for 2024.
“The Florida governor’s stock is rising. Less than 90 days ago, DeSantis’ 2024 shares were trading around 20-22 cents. Trump has been as high as 30 cents,” Casino.org reported at the time.
Bloomberg previously explained that to skirt the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, bets on PredictIt are limited to $850. However, the platform will often run multiple variations of the same question — so users can have much more riding on a single outcome.
“The site’s markets are mostly suggested by the traders themselves, some of whom are current or former campaign staffers who might be well positioned to answer questions such as ‘How many tweets will Donald Trump post from Nov. 20 to 27?’ or ‘When will Anthony Scaramucci’s role as White House communications director end?'” the report explained.
PredictIt co-founder John Phillips told the paper that the prevalence of politicos helps explain why the site so often gets it right.
“Prediction markets function as well as they do and are as accurate as they are … because these markets, like any markets, attract people with superior information,” he said on a podcast in 2016. “In the financial stock market, it’s called inside information.”
DeSantis has not ruled out a run in 2024.
Trump has not formally announced his candidacy but has heavily implied that he intends to run for a third time. He has said that he will be making a major announcement from Mar-a-Lago on November 15. It is unclear if the midterm results will impact his plans.
