2024 Election /

Election Betting Odds Show Ron DeSantis Tied With Michelle Obama For Likelihood of Becoming President

Latest data comes as primary challenger Nikki Haley ties or slides ahead of DeSantis in multiple polls

Over the past few months, support among Republicans for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to be the party’s 2024 presidential candidate has steadily declined.

Support for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has grown, allowing her to tie DeSantis in some polls and outperform him in others.

As Haley’s stock continues to rise, donors previously committed to DeSantis are considering backing Haley, who also previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations.

Now, with support for DeSantis falling, Election Betting Odds (EBO) gives him as much chance to win the general election as someone who has sworn not to enter the race — Michelle Obama.

EBO gives both DeSantis and Obama just a three percent chance winning the presidency next year, putting the pair in sixth place.

Here are the current rankings of candidates and their odds of becoming president, according to EBO:

  1. Former President Donald Trump – 34.3 percent chance
  2. President Joe Biden – 32.7 percent chance
  3. Gov. Gavin Newsom – 8.4 percent chance
  4. Nikki Haley – 6.5 percent chance
  5. Robert F. Kennedy – 3.2 percent chance
  6. Michelle Obama, Gov. Ron DeSantis – 3 percent chance
  7. Vice President Kamala Harris – 2.1 percent chance
  8. Sen. Elizabeth Warren – 0.9 percent chance

Throughout the summer, speculation grew as to whether Obama would materialize as a candidate as Biden faced sagging approval ratings and survey results showed a strong majority — roughly two-thirds — of his own party do not want him to be their candidate.

Obama maintained, as she always has, her disinterest in seeking the White House. That she isn’t a candidate and is tied with DeSantis in EBO ranking is a sign of how unfavorably betting markets view the DeSantis campaign and odds he will be able to secure the GOP nomination, let alone win next year’s general election.

EBO says that its odds are better than bookies odds because all of the sites they pull from are markets, meaning candidates’ shares are traded like stocks in the stock market, so the resulting prices can indicate the probability. With bookies, a single individual or company can arbitrarily set odds at a certain price.

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