The GOP is favored to regain control of the U.S. Senate after next year’s general election according to new analysis.
Currently, Democrats hold a 51-49 advantage in the senate. Next year, there are 34 seats up for grabs, 23 of which will be defended by Democrats or independents, which gives Republicans an advantage as they try to flip the upper chamber.
As it stands, Republicans have a 57.5 percent chance of re-taking control of the senate, according to Logan Phillips, who runs the election forecasting website Race to the White House.
With the election more than a year away, projections could drastically change over the next 12 months. However, currently the GOP is favored by Phillips to win at least 51 seats, which would give Republicans more congressional muscle.
“If they retain the White House, Democrats can afford to lose one seat given the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote in the case of a 50-50 split. If a Republican becomes president, they need to keep them all,” Phillips wrote. “Democrats will be defending seats in red states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia – while holding off challengers in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They have limited offensive opportunities this cycle, but their juiciest target is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who narrowly won in 2018.”
Updated Election Forecast
House – Chance to Win a Majority:
Democrats: 55.0%
Republicans: 45.0%Senate – Chance to Win a Majority:
Democrats: 42.5%
Republicans: 57.5%Source: RacetotheWH
— Logan Phillips (@LoganR2WH) October 23, 2023
270 to Win has updated composite ratings from multiple forecasters and also projects that Republicans will finish next year’s election contest with 50 senate seats, compared to Democrats winning 47.
Members of the Senate Democratic Caucus are defending the most competitive seats, according to CNN’s Simone Pathe, who says that candidates from both parties are likely to separate themselves from President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Trump’s four indictments, which could become convictions prior to the general election, are likely to be a liability to down ballot candidates in some areas next year, Pathe says. However, red-state Democrats must run with a deeply unpopular Biden at the top of the ticket.
Vulnerable Democratic senators, she argues, will look to distance themselves from Biden or position themselves as a check on the White House to boost their image with voters.
