Early voting surged across the U.S. in the 2022 midterm elections with record-high turnout and much of the voting favoring Republicans.
Political science professor Michael McDonald compiled 2022 general election early voting statistics and found that 31,988,292 people cast early ballots.
That number includes 13,652,985 in-person early votes, and 18,335,307 mail ballots returned.
McDonald’s United States Elections Project found that though Democrats requested and returned more mail ballots, Republicans’ mail ballot return rate was 32 percent, while the return rate for Democrats was 30.5 percent.
Of states that reported data with party registration, Republicans also dominated in-person early voting. 39.8 percent of early in-person voting was by Republicans, while only 34.3 percent of in-person early ballots were cast by registered Democrats.
Reporting from hotly contested precincts around the country shows a massive enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, with conservative voters energized and showing up at the polls in strong numbers.
New York
Polling over the past few weeks has shown New York Republican Lee Zeldin closing in on incumbent Kathy Hochul as the pair sprint to the finish line in the race for governor.
In mid-October, Hochul had an 11-point lead over Zeldin in the RealClearPolitics poll. By the end of October, Zeldin had closed that lead to only four points.
New York’s early voting numbers show that the Democrat strongholds of New York City and surrounding regions are significantly underperforming, suggesting a lack of support for Hochul.
New York City’s 2022 early voting turnout is only 38 percent of what it was in 2020. Turnout for Long Island is down 63 percent, turnout for the state’s northern suburbs is down 53 percent, and the mid-Hudson area is down 71 percent.
https://twitter.com/JoeBorelliNYC/status/1587951392114851843
Add to that the numerous endorsements Zeldin is receiving from the state’s Hasidic Jewish groups — who historically have supported Democrats — and the predicted “red wave” sweeping the country could splash it’s way to New York.
Florida
Over the past two years, Florida has moved from a purple state to a reliably red state, as voter registrations of Republican have soared.
As of Nov. 2, registered Republicans were surpassing Democrats in early voting, even despite a recent eleventh hour trip by President Joe Biden attempting to drive Democrat turnout.
1,590,632 Republicans cast early ballots (43.52 percent), compared to 1,363,302 Democrat ballots (37.3 percent), according to data from Florida’s Voice.
“This is not what we expected,” Christine Alexandria Olivio, Democratic House candidate in Florida’s 26th Congressional District, told a local news outlet WLRN Public Radio and Television. “This is worse than what we expected. We’re getting our butts kicked right now.”
Other Demographic Shifts
Much of the rightward shift across the nation is from white suburban women, who are abandoning Democrats in the final days of campaigning due to concerns over the economy and inflation, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
WSJ data shows women in suburban areas now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 points, “moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll.”
