A new poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden by a 7-point margin.
The latest data from Premise shows that 41 percent would vote for Trump in the 2024 election, compared to just 34 percent who favor Biden. Twenty-five percent said they were unsure.
In line with nearly all other intra-party polling, the Premise numbers show Trump leading the GOP field of candidates with 57 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is polling in second place with just 16 percent support. The other candidates are all in single digits.
When asked to choose between Biden and DeSantis, 32 percent of respondents favored Biden, while 31 percent favored Desantis.
However, while not widely reported, the poll also shows danger ahead for Trump, pending the outcome of numerous criminal and civil cases slated to begin during next year’s campaign season.
While a majority surveyed believe that if Trump were convicted and sentenced to time in prison that he would still run as a candidate, 62 percent say in that circumstance they would be either “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to continue to support him.
Just 39 percent said they would be “very likely” or “likely” to continue backing the former president following a conviction.
Twenty-two percent of respondents said they did not plan to vote in next year’s election.
The Premise poll oversampled Democrats, which could potentially skew the data against the Republican candidates.
On one question, Democrats exclusively were asked if they believed Biden should be running for president in 2024. More than half (55 percent) said “no.”
Current List of Criminal Cases Against Trump:
- Criminal trial in which Trump was indicted on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in connection with a $130,000 payment to an adult film star. Trial is set to begin March 25, 2024, during mid-primary season, which opens with the Iowa caucuses in January.
- Criminal trial following a June 2023 indictment by a federal grand jury in Miami for removing classified national defense documents from the White House after he left office. Judge Aileen M. Cannon set the trial date for May 20, 2024, less than two months before the Republican National Convention.
- A federal grand jury in Washington D.C. indicted Trump on Aug. 1, alleging he conspired to overturn the 2020 election results. Trump faces four charges in connection with events that transpired prior to and on Jan. 6, 2021.
- A Fulton County, Georgia district attorney is likely to bring charges against the former president within the next week over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia.
Even if convicted in one or more of the cases, Trump is unlikely to spend any time in prison, given the national security implications of protecting a former president.
When answering if Trump could see the inside of a prison cell, Chuck Rosenberg, a former top federal prosecutor and counsel to then-FBI Director James B. Comey, said, “Theoretially, yes, and practically, no.”
He added, “Any federal district judge ought to understand it raises enormous and unprecedented logistical issues. Probation, fines, community service and home confinement are all alternatives.”
