2024 Election /

New Poll Finds Trump Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Biden in Iowa

A new poll has found that former President Donald Trump is holding a double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical Iowa general election match-up.

The Emerson College pollsters also found that Trump has a 35-point lead for the GOP Caucus in the state.

In the hypothetical presidential matchup between Trump and Biden, the 45th president leads 50 percent to 39 percent among Iowa voters, with 11 percent still undecided. Things get even worse for Biden when Green Party candidate Cornel West is added into the mix.

“In a hypothetical ballot with Trump, Biden, and Green Party candidate Cornel West, Trump holds 48% support, Biden with 35%, and West pulls 5%. The share of undecided voters with West on the ballot increases to 13%,” the pollsters report.

The survey found Trump has 49 percent support in the Iowa Republican Caucus, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 14 percent, U.S. Senator Tim Scott with 8 percent, neoconservative former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 7 percent, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 7 percent. Six percent remain undecided.

“Trump holds the majority of support among voters without a college degree, but his support decreases to 28% among those whose highest level of education is a college degree, and 27% with a postgraduate degree,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling. “Twenty-four percent of those with a college degree support DeSantis, but the Florida Governor’s support drops to 16% among postgraduates with Haley earning 20% of this vote.”

Of the Republicans surveyed, 61 percent said that they are “definitely” sticking with their chosen candidate, while 39 percent said that they could be swayed to vote for someone else.

“Trump supporters are the most likely to stick with their candidate as 79% say they will definitely vote for the former President, while just 21% say they could change their mind,” Kimball noted. “Conversely, 71% of Scott voters, 70% of Haley, 56% of DeSantis and 46% of Ramaswamy voters say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for a different candidate.”

The poll found that the economy remains the top issue for a plurality (37%) Iowa voters, followed by healthcare (14%), education (12%), “threats to democracy” (9%), abortion access (6%), housing affordability (6%), and immigration (5%).

The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey was conducted September 7-9 2023, among registered Iowa voters.

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