A red wave in the 2022 midterm elections could be imminent or a pipe dream, depending on who you ask.
Throughout the year, Republicans have consistently been expected to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In most polls, Democrats have been favored to retain control of the Senate, particularly after the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade.
However, the latest projections from Real Clear Politics now show the GOP is favored to win control of both chambers of Congress, picking up the Senate by a 52-48 margin.
Pennsylvania is a closely watched race, where Trump-backed candidate Mehmet Oz is squaring off against Democrat John Fetterman. For much of 2022, Fetterman has maintained a lead over Oz in polls, including RCP, which showed Fetterman with a nine-point lead over Oz in August.
As of Oct. 10, RCP average polling shows Oz has opened up a two-point lead over Fetterman and predicts Republicans will win the seat in November.
RCP projects that Republicans will win Senate seats in North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
Another upcoming tight race is in Arizona, where incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly is in a heated contest with Republican Blake Masters.
In a recent debate between the two candidates, Kelly tried to distance himself from Biden on issues like border security, while signaling support for widening abortion access. Masters framed the election around the economy, vowed to reform a “woke” military, and openly stated that he’s a pro-life candidate who would allow legal carveouts for women in some circumstances (ostensibly rape and incest).
Kelly, whose lead had already been shrinking before the debate, now only favors Masters by less than two points and is projected by RCP to lose the seat to Masters on Election Day.
The other heated race is in Georgia, where two candidates both generally disliked by the electorate — Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) — are facing each other.
Walker, who just three days ago fired his political director in a campaign shakeup, had a slight lead over Warnock in mid-September.
However, by the end of the month, Warnock moved ahead. As of Oct. 10, Walker’s polling numbers are cratering amid a recent scandal in which Christian Walker — his son — published a video with abortion and family-related allegations that some political insiders chalked up to be an October surprise meant to tank Walker’s campaign.
RCP predicts Democrats will win New Hampshire’s Senate seat, and that the GOP will win the Nevada seat.
The House map from RCP projects Republicans will pick up 220 House seats, with Democrats securing only 180.
