Rumors have been circulating that Democrats are plotting to remove President Joe Biden as the nominee in the 2024 election and replace him with another candidate.
Possible names for a stand-in include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former First Lady Michelle Obama, and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Speculation over a Biden departure is partially fueled by recent polling showing that two-thirds of Democrat and Democrat-leaning registered voters want someone other than Biden at the top of the ticket.
Some also cite Biden’s cognitive decline, suspected poor health that is punctuated by episodes of falling down, and controversies surrounding his son Hunter, as reasons Democrats may ditch him in favor of another candidate.
Though 58 percent of Americans now disapprove of Biden’s presidency and his sagging approval rating is sitting at 39 percent, a left-leaning political operative says that he isn’t going anywhere.
“No,” Leslie Marshall, a Democratic Strategist, told Timcast during an interview in response to a question as to whether Democrats are engaging in private conversations about a possible Biden replacement.
“This is another thing where I think it’s just a sexy headline, maybe,” she said. “That’s not going to happen. [Newsom] is very supportive of the president. He has a lot going here as a governor and he’s young enough that he has time. He doesn’t need Joe Biden to drop out in order for him to run for president.”
Marshall has advised numerous U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns — all for Democrats. She is also a Fox News contributor, hosts a syndicated radio show, and is a TedX speaker.
She added that in all political races, both Democrats and Republicans have a Plan B in mind, suggesting that any names floated as a Biden replacement could be a part of normal contingency planning that regularly occurs during election season.
Multiple recent polls have shown former President Donald Trump tied with Biden, and in others pulling ahead with a slight lead in a hypothetical general election contest.
Forecasting based on all major polls weighted for past accuracy and political bias shows that if the election were held today, Biden leads Trump (44-43), while Electoral College forecasting based on the same metrics shows that if the election were held today, Biden would take 302 electoral votes compared to Trump winning 234 electoral votes.
Marshall, however, says that since 2016, polling simply isn’t as powerful, denouncing the negative survey results from respondents who don’t want either candidate to run.
“And when you look at the polls, I think that’s absolutely ridiculous. We look at [Biden’s] low approval rating that he had, and what happened in the midterms; he had one of the best midterms that an incumbent president has had, and lost the least amount of seats,” she explained.
“Second of all, the polls show the same thing for Donald Trump; people not wanting him to run, and he’s still going to run. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are not going to run or not run based on polls,” she stated.
“You have Americans that voted for him, that want him to run again, and they’re counting on him and will vote for him if he is the nominee, at the end of the day, because they’re not going to vote for what the alternative is,” she added. “And so my point would be to a lot of people who are speculating that Joe Biden is not going to be the nominee, or he’s not gonna be in the race, I think it’s more their wishful thinking than fact-based reporting.”
When asked about the likelihood that Trump would overcome Biden in next year’s general election, she offered grim prospects for Republicans, predicting that if chosen as the nominee Trump will lose because voters would view his re-election as going backwards.
She remarked:
I think if Donald Trump becomes the nominee, we’re going to hear more of the same, which is the victimization speech, right? The election was stolen from me. You know, all of these indictments are against me. None of that tells people how are you going to propel us from where we are forward.
How are you going to make food prices come down? How are you going to stop Republican governors from shipping migrants to Democratic states? How are you going to deal with the migrant crisis? How are you going to work with people across the aisle when you’ve insulted almost every single one of them?
The list goes on. And that’s not going to be attractive. I’m not just saying Donald Trump, it wouldn’t be attractive for any candidate, and that’s part of the wanting to move, you know, move forward.
She also says that abortion is going to play a strong role in the outcome of the 2024 election, mirroring the outsized role it played in the 2022 midterm elections because of voters angered by the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v Wade.
After seeing the impact abortion had during the midterms, Democrats have been preparing to make the issue front-and-center once again.
The end of Roe v Wade did not signal an end to abortion, it simply returned the matter to the states. But, in the wake of the historic decision, some Democrats have proposed federal legislation to codify it nationally, while some Republicans have pitched nationwide bans.
Given that 71 percent of Americans, including majorities of both major political parties, say the decision to have an abortion should be left up to a woman and her doctor, Republicans must tread delicately on the issue in order to avoid alienating voters.
“The Republican Party has an abortion issue. I’m sorry, they do,” Marshall said. “Nikki Haley said something I thought was good in the debate the other night, and I’m paraphrasing, but that they need to be pro-life, but pro-women. And for people like Mike Pence and others that say abortion isn’t a huge issue, just look at Ohio and just look at the midterms. I disagree.”
She added, “And the idea of a ban, a federal ban on abortion definitely is not palatable even to women that call themselves pro-life.”
